The Assessment of Future Air Temperature and Rainfall Changes Based on the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM): The Case of the Wartburg Community in KZN Midlands, South Africa

The agriculture sector in Africa is dominated by small-scale farmers who account for about 80% of the total farms. However, are vulnerable to climate change and variability. Their high susceptibility emanates from their inadequate ability adapt change. As a result, generally adversely impacted due over-reliance on rainfed natural resources. This exposure susceptibility, however, differ across regions heterogeneity topography, climate, access resources, farmer resilience adaptation capacity. Therefore, site-specific studies encouraged increase awareness, capacity at local level. study intends analyse historical (air temperature rainfall) data weather station that has not been employed project possible future changes same parameters global warming localised agricultural community within sugarbelt region KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. focuses mainly air rainfall inform potential impacts projected productivity. was conducted KwaZulu-Natal midlands Africa, Representative Climate Pathways (RCP8.5 RCP4.5) projection CanESM2 model were used trends 2020s, 2040s 2080s. According results, both minimum maximum temperatures will continue entire period. RCP8.5 results indicate reach range 1.72 3.14 °C 1.54 3.48 °C, respectively. For rainfall, projects positive trend, although all scenarios predict declining trend near (2020s) an 2050s. These that, absence risk farmers, particularly sugarcane, which largely planted area, production losses heighten hence likelihood increased poverty, food insecurity unemployment.